I try to briefly break down what's going on in Egypt for my buddy

A friend and I were catching up the other day and he asked me about Egypt. We were running out of town, so I sent an email and quickly recognized it was really a blog post. Who sends these kinds of long-winded, I'm-an-expert emails to their friends (ones that aren't about sports, I mean)? Apparently this guy.

Anyway, my take on what's gone on in Egypt:

The long story short, we've been helping prop up a highly un-democratic "republic" for thirty years. Since the military staged a coup against the British-backed monarchy in 1952 (the Free Officers' Movement, it was called), Egypt has had three presidents, all former Air Force officers. Mubarak is just the last of those. He's now 82. He's spent the last few years grooming his son Gamal as his successor, while simultaneously denying it because he's not sure how his cronies would feel about a non-military guy taking over next. One of the biggest opposition parties, the Muslim Brotherhood, is probably one of the more organized Islamist parties in the Arab world. But don't let the Fox News folks confuse you: they are democratic, do not use violence, etc. They do believe in a greater role for Islam in government and they believe in pluralism and participation. They're banned from participating in elections and every so often state security forces will show up at an MB gathering, bust some skulls, and arrest some Brothers. But they also arrested Ayman Nour, a liberal politician who has consistently opposed Mubarak and run against him. Not that it matters: Mubarak typically wins with at least 85% of the vote.

I'm skeptical to attach too much to the events in Tunisia, but I do think its hard to deny the timing. The Tunisia revolt really emboldened everyone in the region, and the protests are only growing. My guess is, frankly, Egypt won't be the last authoritarian leader to go down. It sent a message that a big popular revolt really could take down a government, and even though Egypt is a little more open than Tunisia in terms of what was possible to discuss in public, there was really no avenue for most people to speak up or advocate for change.

In my opinion, the protests and Mubarak's pending ouster are good things, but only if a real popular vote comes to fruition. Unlike in Tunisia, there is actually some political party infrastructure, and there are influential potential leaders outside the Mubarak regime and the NDP (his party). El Baradei is one of those -- the former Atomic Energy agency head and Nobel winner -- but, for my money, he's played the role of king-in-waiting a little too much. It's as though he's waiting to be appointed Egypt's democratic savior. But now it looks like there's some real multiparty consensus to have him represent popular interests in a transition to power, so it's hardly my place to editorialize on the matter.

I think the US tack has been pretty good on the whole. Calls to completely cut aid (by Senator Paul, no shock there) are a little ridiculous, though I think its due for a major slashing. That $1.5 billion a year is basically rent: we pay them that much because they are close to Israel. They keep weapons from getting into Gaza (sometimes) and they promise not to attack Israel, keep the Suez open, and help us out with our anti-terrorism efforts. We pay similar type "rents" to other countries (Morocco is a biggie too) but nothing on this kind of level, at least nothing without major oil reserves. I think we need to cut how much money we give, reconfigure where our aid money actually goes within any Egyptian administration, and withhold future funding until a democratic election with outside observers is held and those people take power.

We shouldn't be afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood. As Gibbs said the other day, we don't pick the candidates on the ballots, we just make sure the elections are fair and just. Seems right to me. I don't think it's too late to change our course on Mubarak and back real democratic reform. We're only two years into Obama's term, and I think a fair number of Egyptians and Arabs elsewhere would respect the change in policy as the correct one. It wouldn't get rid of all the skepticism, but I have trouble seeing how a big policy change wouldn't be, at the very least, appreciated.

Of course, once Mubarak goes down (and he will), the possibilities are endless and Obama will have a true foreign policy mess on his hands. Normally, I'd say that if Obama didn't have bad luck, he'd have no luck at all, but I do believe this is an opportunity to capitalize on, though its going to require a big re-thinking of our "pro-democracy" priorities. We might want to get on that sooner rather than later.